Predicting the future is always a tricky business. Nothing is a “sure thing.” There are no “locks.” Learning from the past and studying trends is about all the real estate prognosticator can do.
Dr. Alex Villacorta is a statistician who works for Clear Capital, a company that studies all things real estate for firms in the mortgage industry. In this piece by Michael Gerrity, he quotes Villacorta as saying:
“Overall, prices look poised to continue their deceleration with a likely drop into negative territory by the end of the year. But keep in mind, the price gains we experienced over the past two years are providing a cushion against prices going into double dip territory, meaning it is unlikely we’ll see prices below their 2009 lows this year.”
This quote was directed at the nation as a whole, so what about Louisville real estate? I’m glad you asked! The article highlights Louisville as one of the top-performing metro markets in the nation. While the South as a region saw a 4.1% yearly increase, Louisville’s year-to-year was 12.5%. These numbers are far more positive than those I’ve found at the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
If you’ve followed our LHB Housing Reports, then you can see that even neighboring MLS areas respond very differently each and every month when it comes to both home prices and home sales. For this reason, analysts are zooming in to what we call micro markets. Citywide averages could be moving in the opposite direction of your home area and only heaven knows how state numbers might correlate.
My best advice would be to stay informed and find a trustworthy professional to act as a sounding board for your real estate questions.
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